Archive for May, 2006

May 13 2006

Google projected King of the Web by August 2007

Published by admin under Tech Talk

According to WashigntonPost.com, Google had 92,147 (thousands) unique visitors in February 2006, a 21% increase over the

same period last year, while Yahoo had 115,401 (thousands), or 5% increase over the same period last year.


 

IF the growth rate remains the same, Google is expected to
be crowned the “King of the Web” by August 2007, which is about 18 months after the
data was measured. MYSPACE.COM and BLOGGER.COM had an astronomical growth of
318% and 528% respectively. If these two players continue to perform at that
rate, it would only take them 5 and 6 months to reach the top and Google would
have to fight harder for the throne.

 

To keep things simple, let’s just assume the war is between
Yahoo and Google for the top position. Under this assumption, below you will
find the numbers I was able to calculate, based on a small PHP program that I
wrote, using the Future Value formula to arrive at my results. You will also
find the PHP program below, just in case you would like to run your own
numbers.

 

 

 



Projection
Date



Yahoo
Unique Visitors (thousands)



Google
Unique Visitors (thousands)



Difference
in Visitors (thousands)



Difference
in Percentage


Mar-06


115,882


93,760


22,122


23.59%


Apr-06


116,365


95,400


20,965


21.98%


May-06


116,850


97,070


19,780


20.38%


Jun-06


117,336


98,769


18,567


18.80%


Jul-06


117,825


100,497


17,328


17.24%


Aug-06


118,316


102,256


16,060


15.71%


Sep-06


118,809


104,045


14,764


14.19%


Oct-06


119,304


105,866


13,438


12.69%


Nov-06


119,801


107,719


12,082


11.22%


Dec-06


120,301


109,604


10,697


9.76%


Jan-07


120,802


111,522


9,280


8.32%


Feb-07


121,305


113,473


7,832


6.90%


Mar-07


121,811


115,459


6,352


5.50%


Apr-07


122,318


117,480


4,838


4.12%


May-07


122,828


119,536


3,292


2.75%


Jun-07


123,340


121,628


1,712


1.41%


Jul-07


123,853


123,756


97


0.08%



Aug-07



124,370



125,922



-1,552



-1.23%

 

 

Below is the PHP code that I wrote to compute these values:

 


PHP Code to calculate when Google will become King ofthe Web


/*
Author: Jorge Garifuna
Email: info@GariDigital.com
Website: http://www.GariDigital.com
  

The following code calculates when Google will overthrow Yahoo to become the king of the web
The measurements are done based on data released about the unique visitors of each site as reported by:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/custom/2006/03/31/CU2006033101136.html
*/

$report_date = "2/1/2006"; // the date the report measured

/* start google settings */
$ginterest=21; // google growth rate
$gpv = 92147; // google unique visitors in February 2006 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/custom/2006/03/31/CU2006033101136.html)
/* end google settings */

/* start yahoo settings */
$yinterest=5; // yahoo growth rate
$ypv = 115401; // yahoo unique visitors in February 2006 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/custom/2006/03/31/CU2006033101136.html)
/* end yahoo settings */

$match_in_months = -1;
$months = 1;
$match = false;

$start_date=strtotime($report_date,time());
print_value("Stat Date","Yahoo","Google","Difference","Margin");
print_value("---------","-----","------","----------","------");

while(!$match){
$google_fv = fv($ginterest, $months, $gpv);
$yahoo_fv = fv($yinterest, $months, $ypv);
$yahoo_fv = number_format($yahoo_fv,0,"",""); // remove decimals
$google_fv = number_format($google_fv,0,"",""); // remove decimals

if(($google_fv >= $yahoo_fv)){
$match_in_months = $months;
$match = true;
}
$difference = ($yahoo_fv - $google_fv);
$margin = ((($yahoo_fv - $google_fv)/$google_fv)*100);
$margin = number_format($margin,2)."%";
$stat_date =strtotime("+$months months",$start_date);
$stat_date = date("M Y",$stat_date);
print_value($stat_date, number_format($yahoo_fv,0), number_format($google_fv,0),number_format($difference,0),$margin);
//print "$stat_date\t\t$yahoo_fv\t\t$google_fv\n";
$months++;
}

$yahoo_fv = number_format($yahoo_fv,0); // format value
$google_fv = number_format($google_fv,0); // format value

print "\nMatch in $match_in_months months\nWith Google $google_fv and Yahoo $yahoo_fv unique visitors\n\n";

/*
Author: Jorge Garifuna
Email: info@GariDigital.com
Website: http://www.GariDigital.com
Created: May 13, 2006
This function calculates the Future Value

@params
- $pv : accumulated quantity (eg: 9000 for 9,000)
- $period : number of months (eg: 120)
- $interest : interest or growth rate (eg: 5 for 5%)

returns
- the future value
*/
function fv($interest, $period, $pv){
$interest /= 100;
$interest /= 12;
$fv = ($pv * pow(1+$interest, $period)); // compute future value
return $fv;
}

/*
Author: Jorge Garifuna
Email: info@GariDigital.com
Website: http://www.GariDigital.com
Created: May 13, 2006
This function prints a formated version of the the output

@params
- $date_info : either the stat date header label or the actual date value
- $yahoo_info : either the yahoo header label or the actual unique visitors value
- $google_info : either the google header label or the actual unique visitors value
- $difference : the difference in quantity of unique visitors between Google and Yahoo
- $margin : the difference in percentage of unique visitors between Google and Yahoo
*/
function print_value($date_info, $yahoo_info, $google_info,$difference,$margin){
print "$date_info\t$yahoo_info\t\t$google_info\t\t$difference\t\t$margin\n";
}
?>

 

 

Update 1 Sept, 2, 2008: It took Google one year longer to become king of the web :(



About the author:


Jorge Garifuna is a Computer Scientist and Real Estate professional, who loves to serve his Garifunacommunity. Jorge has served as vice-president of former New York-based, Garifuna youth organization, Lileiti Dufigati, has been the president to Los Angeles-based, Garifuna organization, SONHOCA, and holds membership with various Garifuna organizations, such as Wafadaha Uwara, and national technology organizations, such as ACM and IEEE. Jorge has donated his time to lecture classes about Computer & Internet usage for Garifuna organizations like, MUGAMA. Additionally, Jorge has trained high school students in programming, for national competition, under the BDPA-LA organization.


Jorge is also the CEO of Garinet Global Inc. Garinet has established itself as the major Garifuna Network since it launched in 1999. It currently averages over one million hits per month from over one hundred different countries around the world.


Garinet has consistently created services to enhance the future of the Garifuna community. Through its GariDigital.com website, Garinet offers the general public, a multitude of Website services for organizations, businesses, entertainers and family members.


To stay updated with Jorge’s latest development, you may visit his official website, Jgari.com :
http://www.Jgari.com


Jorge may be contacted by email at jg at garinet.com

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